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Injury
Risks
Aleksander J — October 18, 2007 The worst that can happen to a fantasy basketball (fbb) player is to see one of his franchise cornerstones go down with a serious injury. Most of us have been there at least once and experienced those horrible dilemmas: to keep dead weight in hope of a miraculous comeback, to drop him or to try and trade him for far less value in order to get at least something out of him. Last season was especially bad in that regard. In the end there is nothing you can do to completely protect yourself from those disasters, no matter how close you follow all player news. Freak injuries are going to occur every year. What you can do is to limit the risk by avoiding players who have injury history and have failed to produce a healthy season in last 2-3 years. This guide will help you out in that task. If you did draft or trade for any of those below mentioned guys you would do well to try to unload them as soon as possible. So without further ado here they are, players who cost us fbb players sleepless nights, guys you don’t want on your team no matter how sweet their stat lines look: 1. Marcus Camby – or Mr. Glass as he is also known. He has yet to play more then 72 games (managed that in 2003-04) in a regular season. In 9 seasons (I will be excluding the lock-out season in this article) he has missed approximately 19 games per season. That, however, does not tell the whole story. There are many occasions where his day to day status might trick you into leaving him on the bench while he suits up and gets one of those monster games you drafted him for only to sit out the next game, when you do start him. The amount of nerves his owners have lost far exceeds his DNPs. Many people are taking him in the 2nd round based on last year’s stats and 70 games played but, he is a year older (he’ll be 33.5 by the start of the season), Kenyon Martin is back, the Nuggets traded for Steven Hunter and don’t forget about Nene. While Camby is the best among them, Gorge Karl might try to reduce his playing time in order to keep him available/fresh for the post-season. With all the risk there’s no reason to spend anything more then 4th rounder on him. You’ll find plenty of players with similar value, but with much less uncertainty, in rounds 1-3. 2. Tracy McGrady – T-Mac has averaged 66 games/season over the last 4 seasons and played 71 games last season. The worst of those 4 was the one before last with just 47 games. He has chronic back problems and though he is relatively young at 28 he failed to play more then 49 games twice all ready. His FT% has been down in each of the last 3 seasons to a career low 70.7% last year. After shooting 45+ FG% in 5 of his first 6 seasons he has averaged around 42% in last 4 seasons (his FG% problems started with his back problems as he stopped driving to the basket and started to settle for jumpers more, so that’s not about to change). Also, he posted a career worst 3 TOs, 0.5 blks, his 2nd lowest rebound and scoring output since he became a superstar (24.6 last year; 24.4 the year before). At this point, Houston is Yao’s team (he led the team in scoring last season for the 1st time). Adelman’s arrival might help him turn things around, but he is not a guy you want to spend your 2nd or maybe even 3rd round pick on. His superstar status will guarantee he gets picked here in most drafts, but with all the injury issues and general decline he is just not worth the risk at this point. 3. Jermaine O’Neal – during last 3 seasons he missed 82 games (13 last season) and he is now 29 years old. Over those same 3 seasons he averaged 45.3% from field and 3 TOs, very bad numbers for an elite big man. There is still time for him to turn this trend around, he too has a new coach and that might, or might not help, but I just don’t trust him anymore and will stay away from him at least until 4th round. 4. Baron Davis --he had a good season when he was healthy, but still missed 19 games. He has averaged 22 games missed over last 6 seasons. He is 28.5 years old. He had a career high 43.9 FG%, but he is 41.1% career shooter, so there’s no guarantee that trend will continue. His FT% was 74.5, 2nd highest of his career, but he is 68.1% from the free throw line for his career. Also he shot the lowest number of three pointers in his last 7 years, which no doubt helped his FG%, but hurt his 3PTM contribution. He is currently in negotiations for a contract extension and Warriors would do well to give him one. Hornets can tell them what happens when Baron is unhappy. When a player has what is considered by many a comeback year although he misses 19 games and both his FG% and FT% hurt his owners it is a clear sign to me that he is not top 40 player though that’s where he’s been taken most of the time 5. Yao Ming – after missing just 2 games in his first 3 seasons, the 27 year old has missed 59 over the last 2 (34 of those during last season) with leg and foot injuries. Many people will be tempted to take him in the 1st round because, when healthy, he is one of, if not the, best center in fbb. But ask yourself, what good will he be to you if he misses 30 games. When I think of Yao, the name Ralph Sampson keeps ringing in my mind. Ralph was an all-world talent, and one of the original Twin Towers (along with Hakeem Olajuwon), until his knees gave up on him and injuries ruined his career. I’m not saying Yao will necessarily end up like Ralph Sampson did, but there are some unsettling similarities: Sampson was 7-foot-4 and had 3 great seasons, before his leg problems (knee problems to be more precise) began. Also Adelman brings a quicker pace and I don’t think that’s the best way to utilize Yao’s style of play and keep his legs healthy. He missed international duties this summer and that should help, but in the end I’m just not ready to spend a high pick on him until he proves he can still play a full season 6. Emeka Okafor – he has missed 80 games during his 3 years in the league or almost 27 a year (15 last year), and he is only 25. He is one of the best big men and he is still very young so there is plenty of time to shake the injury prone label, but it’s not a good sign when a player misses 1/3 of his games this early in his career with not one freak injury, but various different injuries. 7. Ron Artest – he averaged 16 games missed over 7 seasons (not counting the season he was suspended for 75 games by the league, or it goes up to 24 games a season including that one) and he’ll soon be 28. He missed 12 games last season. He played 70+ games 4 times in 8 years in the league. Many of those missed games were due to various league or team imposed suspensions. He made NBA history with the “Malice in the Palace” incident, but he’s been suspended in Chicago before that and in Indiana after that. Also he had a number of both real injuries and “injuries”. He is a top-30, maybe even top-20 talent, but his ability to miss games with no good reason is unmatched. He is not unhappy in Sacramento, but recently he said that he “wouldn’t mind if Kings traded him to Knicks”. There were rumors about him and Bibby not getting along all season long. So why spend a 3rd rounder on a player who could miss the entire, or parts of the, season on a whim, when there are players of similar productivity well into the forties 8. Gerald Wallace – his role with the Kings during his first 3 years was very small so I’ll concentrate on his last 3 seasons. He missed 13 games a season during that span, though he played career high 72 games last year; he is only 25. He is one of my favorite players. I’ve been drafting him every year since he came to Charlotte and enjoyed some great production, so it’s really hard for me to say this, but I won’t own him in any league this year. The addition of J-Rich can’t help his value, but that’s not the main reason. He has become too high profile of a player and he’s been going mostly in the 3rd round, and as high as the 2nd round in some of my drafts. That’s the price I’m not willing to pay for a player I know will miss at least 10 games, probably more, especially when I know that the Bobcats have 4 other players who’ll merit time some time at SG-SF-PF spots (Herrmann, Morrison, Carol, J-Rich). He is still the best fbb player on Charlotte, but his price is just too high for me this season 9. Allen Iverson – he has missed 90 games over the last 6 seasons, 17 games last season, and is now 32. He played fewer then 40 minutes per game just once in his career and appeared in fewer then 70 games 3 times out of 10 full seasons he’s been in the NBA, including last year. He is one of the toughest players out there, he has played through countless injuries, but all the mileage and age are creeping up on him. He’ll probably be good for around 70 games again, so as long as you don’t expect more you’re ok. But the days of him being taken in top 2 rounds are gone. 10. Corey Maggette – he managed to play 73+ games just 3 times in his 8 year career, and averaged 17 missed games a year. He had a high of 50 missed games 2 years ago, and he’ll soon be 28. He played in 75 games last year – the highest number since his rookie season. The only reason I found him relevant enough to make the list is that many people are picking him very early this season due to the injury to Elton Brand, hoping he will be the main beneficiary. He failed to remain healthy while he was a complementary player and opposing defenses had to concentrate on some other guys. There’s no way he can do it now when he is the only proven scorer on the team and will get the most defensive pressure and see double teams. He is playing for a new contract, but he is at odds with his coach and was almost traded several times last season. Notable players
who didn’t make the list: Note: I’m referring to 12 team standard 9 cats leagues, so if you play in deeper or shallower league remember take that into account
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