After the article “Is LeBron James #1?” was posted, I got some feedback requesting comparisons of James to other top picks. I don’t expect too many people to agree with my every single pick, but this article should be helpful in that it highlights all of the players’ strengths and weaknesses and helps you reorder them according to your views on these. There is a wide consensus on top 7 picks this year, but the order in which those 7 are supposed to be picked is different matter.

#1 Kevin Garnett (average draft position: Yahoo – 1.5, 1st overall; NBA.com – 1.26, 1st overall); all ready discussed in the previous LeBron article

#2 Shawn Marion (average draft position: Yahoo – 4.1, 4th overall; NBA.com – 2.43, 2nd overall); all ready discussed in the previous LeBron article

#3 Dirk Nowitzki (average draft position: Yahoo – 5.0, 5th overall; NBA.com – 8.22, 8th overall)
There are 3 main reasons for picking him here:
a) He is 7.5 cat contributor. Steals are his weakest point, but other then that he’ll help you in every single category. He was the 14th leading scorer, and 4th among top 7 picks. His blocks are not too good for a PF (hence 7.5 categories), but he has a 1.1 career average and I hope he’ll be back to 1+ bpg this season. His 3ptm were down last year as well but 0.92 is still great coming from a PF slot as is 3.37 assists per game. Rebounds are not spectacular, but sufficient. Considering he is a high volume shooter, his 50.19% from the field has a huge impact.
b) He is one of the 2 best anchors in FT%. He shot 90+ percent the last 2 seasons, there’s no reason for that to change and even more important then his stellar % is the fact that he averages 6.38 free throws made per game which means that very few players shoot more then he does.
c) His average of 2.14 tpg is 4th lowest among top 30 players on my draft-sheet. That gives him great advantage over 4 other top-7 players who all average 3+ turnovers. Overall, he gives you everything you want from your 1st pick: across the board production, out of position stats, he is co-league leader in one cat and he is extremely durable. Furthermore he helps you in 3 extremely difficult stats (both %s and TOs) at the same time

#4 Kobe Bryant (average draft position: Yahoo – 2.4, 2nd overall; NBA.com – 4.77, 5th overall)
Kobe is great fantasy player and a 7 cat contributor. He led the league in scoring last year. His assist and rebound numbers are impressive for a shooting guard while steals and 3ptm are above average. He is the other co-league leader in FT%, besides Dirk. Dirk helps more if your target is 79%+, while Kobe helps more if your target is lower.
His one significant weakness is turnovers, but none of the remaining top-7 players has a notable advantage over him in this cat. His other weakness, much less significant, is less then half a block per game, but very few SGs will give you many more blocks than that. FG% situation is a little complicated. As ADWCTA explained in his articles it’s very hard to find a way to rank players by their %s. When we have significantly above or below average players it becomes easier, but real problem is borderline players. According to my calculations average teams should have FG% somewhere between 46 and 47 depending on the depth of the league (deeper=>lower). This means that Kobe will hurt you if you aim to be good at FG%(47+) and that’s huge problem because he is such a high volume shooter. The higher you want to go the more he hurts you. If your goal is to be around average then he won’t hurt you, but he won’t help much either. Another notable thing is that he missed 14+ games 4 times in last 8 years or 9 on average over that span. His situation in L.A. is not resolved but I don’t believe a trade would decrease Kobe’s value. As I explained earlier, I believe teams adjust to superstars much more then superstars adjust to teams. In conclusion his FG% and injury record tip the scales against him in #3 discussion for my own liking, but #4 is his to lose.

#5 LeBron James (average draft position: Yahoo – 4.0, 3rd overall; NBA.com – 4.08 4th overall)
I’ve already analyzed his game in above mentioned article so I’ll just compare him to Kobe. LBJ beats Kobe: by 1.35% in FG% which is not insignificant, but very similar analysis applies to him too, by 0.67 ast, 1.04 rebs, 0.16 stls, 0.1 TOs and 0.24 blks. That’s not enough to give LBJ large advantage. Kobe beats LBJ: 0.51 3ptm, 4.23 ppg. These won’t be deciding factors either. The reason why I took Kobe over LBJ is FT%. It has been pointed out to me that I overrated James’ FT% deficiency, he won’t kill you all by himself, but it will take big amount of both luck and skill to compensate for him. Kobe on the other hand is league leader in this area so that makes it game, set and match Kobe. LBJ shot free throws very well so far in the preseason, but it will take consistent good shooting during whole season to move him up this list.

#6 Gilbert Arenas (average draft position: Yahoo – 7.8, 7th overall; NBA.com – 3.36, 3rd overall)
Agent Zero is a 6 cat contributor, but his contributions in 4 of those 6 are huge. He is 3rd in the league in scoring and 3ptm, and 9th in steals. Also he is top-10 contributor in FT%, with the 3rd highest number of shots made on top-10 percentage among players who make 4+ free throws per game. He adds nice, but unimpressive for a PG, number of asts and great, for a PG, number of rebs. His lack of blks doesn’t hurt from his position and his TOs were under control last year (he was slightly better then both Kobe and LBJ which is great once again considering he is PG). His greatest weakness comes from his FG%. He is a high volume shooter who shot 41.8% last year and 42.8% for his career. If he could go back to 44.7% he shot 2005/06 he would beat LBJ for the #5 spot. Another notable fact is that he is in a contract year and that should help. I don’t see his numbers improving too much, but some improvements are possible (maybe ast and FG%). When it comes to choosing between Arenas and LBJ it’s very close. I chose LBJ because he holds more upside and spreads his contributions over more cats. They are that close

#7 Steve Nash (average draft position: Yahoo – 6.2, 6th overall; NBA.com – 6.15, 6th overall)
He is 6 cat contributor. He led the league in assists for the 3rd straight year averaging a career best 11.63. Also he was 16th in 3ptm and his FG% 53.24 is outstanding from a PG. He had the best FG% among top-7 players last season and shot enough from the field to make it count. His points are solid and rebs are good for a PG. First problem comes up in FT%, his near 90% doesn’t have as big impact as you would think, considering he attempted just 3.3 free throws per game. He is a nice complementary player in this cat, but his extraordinary percentage can’t be used as an anchor. This is not a minus, but it’s not as big of a strength as it could be. While you don’t normally expect many blocks from your PG, lack of steals does hurt. His career average of 0.8 is around league average and well below PG average. Last but not the least, he was 4th worst in tpg last year and is the worst among top-7 guys. So he is good to great in 3 cats (ast, 3ptm, FG%), solid to good in 3 (FT%, reb, ppg), non factor in one (blk) and he hurts you in 2 (stl, tpg). Considering he is oldest in this group at 33.5, he had some back problems during last season and he holds the least upside in the group I wouldn’t take him before pick number 7.

D-Wade and Elton Brand would be in this group too (top-9 that is) if it weren’t for their injuries. Wade should be back relatively soon, but his overall outlook for this season is not good. He missed preseason and spent the summer rehabbing from 2 surgeries. It’s unclear how long it will take for him to get back into form with so much time off the court, and even when he does, his style of play guarantees he’ll get hurt again and miss time again this season. I wouldn’t bet on him playing more then 60 games at full speed and that’s not enough for a 1st round pick.

Please note that the above opinions are those of Aleksander's, and do not necessarily reflect those of everyone contributing to Rotofreak.com

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