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Tactics
of Ditching
Heiwei Wang
(ADWCTA) — September 17, 2007
Why Ditch?
Ditching a category allows you to gain slight advantages over opponents
who draft BPA (Best Player Available). If opponent A following BPA has
a 100 value each of his 9 categories, and I have 100 also (since we had
equally successful drafts), then we tie. However, if I ditched one category
and thus redistributed all of my values among 8 categories (since my draft
position would be the same), then I would have 112.5 in 8 categories and
0 in one category, versus my opponent's BPA strategy who still has 100
in all 9 categories. This means I could win 8-1 every week over the BPA
strategy. Throw in statistically random performances, and I could still
end up with somewhere between 6-3 and 7-2 each week. This is a good thing.
Inefficiency
Charts:
(Category: league low/league high -- outliers -- inefficency/totalrange
= inefficiency%)
Blocks: 0.2 / 3 -- lowest PF/C = .5 -- 0.3 / 2.8 = 11%
3ptm: 0 / 3 -- lowest G = 0.5 -- 0.5 / 3 = 17%
Assists: 1 / 10 -- lowest G = 2.5 -- 1.5 / 9 = 17%
Points: 10 / 30 -- lowest SG = 15 -- 5 / 20 = 25%
Steals: 0.5 / 2 -- lowest G = 1 -- 0.5 / 1.5 = 33%
Turnovers: 1 / 4 -- highest PF/C = 3 -- 1 / 3 = 33%
Rebounds: 3 / 12 -- lowest PF/C = 6 -- 3 / 9 = 33%
Inefficiency
Charts:
Okay, let me explain. Let's say I ditch assists for my team. Theoretically,
each of my 8 categories would have 112.5 value if BPA is set at 100 value.
However, for each category you ditch, you suffer inefficiencies. While
Amare only averages 1.0apg, having him on your team still doesn't turn
that assist into another category if you ditch assists, it simply wastes
it. Since you'll never find a player with 0 assists, so ditching any category
involves some degree of inefficiency, no matter how well you construct
your team. In general, the more categories you ditch, the more you suffer
in “total value” from your players. Assists are 17% inefficient,
so instead of redistributing the 100 points of assist value, my assist
value drops to 83. This means my real value of each of my 8 stats ends
up being 110, instead of 112.5. Let's say I ditch steals on top of this,
now I have another penalty of -33. So, my total value drops from 883 to
850, and distributed among 7 cats, I get around 120. This gives me approximately
the same chances of winning 7-2 and 6-3 vs BPA as ditching only a single
cat. However, if I ditch 3ptm on top of this, my value becomes 850-17
= 833, distributed among 6 cats, which is 139. Now, I have no chances
of winning 7-3 at all, and there starts to become diminishing returns
for the increase in 6-3 victories which no longer justifies the ditch.
Plus, it becomes that much harder to find 13 fitting players to make a
roster, all of whom are weak in 3 of the same areas while still having
enough value to be a first/second/third rounder. You generally want to
ditch 1-2 categories in a 9 category league.
Total Value
Sacrifice:
Notice that I assumed our team and BPA team will have the same total value.
However, this is false by definition. Another hidden inefficiency is that
BPA is the only way you can get full value for each of your picks. To
purposely chase for players that fit your team, you make sacrifices in
value. For example, if you're ditching blocks, you need two of the following
Centers (Okur, Troy Murphy, Al Harrington, Zaza Pachulia). No other centers
in the league averages around .5 bpg and has guaranteed minutes. You WILL
have to overdraft two of these people and sacrifice values. Let's say
you only sacrifice 5 value for each reach pick. That's not bad right?
Well, for even non-reaches, you will sacrifice minor value. Let's say
you ditch blocks. Then, even if Dalembert is available in the 8th round,
you can't take him! (without being 100% sure that you can trade him afterwards).
This means that your draft greatly affects how much value you lose to
the BPA team. Further, the more categories you ditch, the more specific
your player selections must be, so you lose exponentially more value per
pick. For example, if for your draft, a one cat ditch averages a -3 value
for each pick made, a two cat ditch will average -9 value, not -6 value.
If you ditch blocks, you have 4 options left at C; if you ditch blocks
+ 3ptm, then you only have 1 option. This means not only must you overdraft
Zaza, you would also be stuck with another center who blocks more than
you'd like him to (let's say Wilcox), which leads to even more inefficiencies.
Generally, ditching one category becomes better than BPA if more than
half of your league are “active and knowledgeable”. Ditching
two categories becomes (slightly) better than ditching one category if
your entire league is “active and knowledgeable”. To be safe,
I recommend anyone who thinks they're facing good competition to only
ditch one category. Note that you do not have to ditch any categories.
There are certain drafts where you will be stuck in a position where you
cannot ditch any category without heavy tolls on inefficiency that BPA
remains your best option again, even in experts drafts where you won't
get many late round steals with BPA.
Why Not Ditch
%s?
Ditching %s is almost always a bad idea, and I don't give it any consideration.
This is mostly because any of the top 14 players (your first rounder)
will be better suited to ditch another category than %s, especially when
combined with your second rounder. Ditch them if you want, but the end
efficiency is almost always to your detriment. How many rebounders have
low fg%? How many assist-men have low ft%? They're not just scarce, they
don't exist. For C, your best options would end up being Okur/Murphy (47%
a piece, which is a huge waste. For PG, your best option would end up
being Baron Davis (70%, again not that bad). Bottom line is, %s are the
hardest category to ditch due to their extremely high inefficiency. Trust
me on this one. The data is too long and extensive for this article.
Choosing What
to Ditch:
If given a choice, ditch the category that suffers the least from inefficiencies.
It's usually a bad idea to ditch turnovers, rebounds, or steals. Only
when facing a league full of experts would you consider ditching points.
One more thing to note is that there are players that do not make any
3 pointers or block any shots at all! This means that these categories
actually have less inefficiencies than the chart indicates. All else being
equal, you should target ditching blocks, 3ptm, assists, points in that
order. After that, rebounds, steals, and turnovers are held equally, with
%s at the very bottom. Finally, since your team is undefined at the point
of your first round pick, that pick should always be BPA, and this should
set the tone for your entire team.
Cheat Sheet:
This is what you've been waiting for! Here's a cheat sheet on single-category
ditching teams and what players you should target for each position. I
used nba.com positions since yahoo.com positions have not yet been released.
Ditching
Blocks:
Synopsis – Shot blockers generally rebound well, since they're usually
either tall or have an incredible verticle. The trick to making a good
block-ditching team is not also accidentally ditching rebounds. Make sure
you take advantage of SF/PFs who rebound the ball well. A high round pick
like Boozer, Jamison, Okur or Randolph is usually a good idea to anchor
your team in rebounds. Also, watch out for your %s. While your fg% won't
win any awards, don't pick a slew of players that force you to ditch the
category altogether. There are plenty of shooters who keep acceptable
fg% (even in lower rounds). This is perhaps the most efficient category
to ditch. But beware: experts love to ditch this category, and with each
additional team ditching any particular category, there becomes a squeeze
for fitting players, and that hurts everyone ditching the category. Try
to make sure less than three others are ditching this category before
you commit.
1st Round Pick – Nowitzki, Bryant, Nash, Kidd, C. Paul, R. Allen
2nd/3rd Round Pick – Iguodala, Iverson, Billups, Butler, Carmelo,
Redd, Deron, J. Johnson, Boozer, Jamison, A. Jefferson
The Rest -
G – Any G with under .5 bpg. This should not be hard to find.
SF – Odom, Mike Miller, Maggette, Korver, A. Parker, Turkoglu, Q.
Richardson, Kapono, Stackhouse, Morrison
PF – Randolph, Stephen Jackson, Gooden, Garbajosa, Gomes, C. Smith,
Marshall, Frye, Radmanovic
C – Okur, Bogut, B. Miller, A. Harrington, Krstic, Murphy, Curry,
Abdur-Rahim, Foster, Blount
Ditching
3ptm:
Synopsis - Without 3ptm, your fg% will be unnaturally high. You want to
take advantage of this and make sure your fg% holds steadily above 50%
(this is really easy to do). On top of that, holding good ft% and turnovers
will make you almost immune to injury woes since injuries only improve
your turnovers and shouldn't affect your %s. Chandler may look nice, but
be sure not to draft 3 of him on your team. You won't be hurting for rebounds,
so don't go overboard at the cost of ft%. Steals are the hidden factor
to this build. Without 3ptm, you want your guards and Sfs to focus on
this category to give you the edge. (Tony Allen, Brevin Knight, Andre
Miller, Andrei Kirilenko). Taking some help from big men such as Camby
is also not a bad idea. You can afford to wait for lower valued players
like Deng, Hamilton, and Maggette for your scorers; points will not be
a problem.
1st Round Pick – Garnett, Wade, Amare, Gasol, Yao
2nd/3rd Round Pick – J. Smith, Duncan, Bosh, Camby, A. Jefferson,
C. Butler, Deng, Boozer, Okafor
The Rest -
G – A. Miller, T. Parker, Ellis, Gay, Hamilton, Childress, Harris,
Knight, Cassell, T. Allen, Claxton, Wells
SF – Kirilenko, Maggette, Diaw, Marv Williams, Balkman, Salmons,
Outlaw, Ariza, Frye
PF – Any PF with under .5 3ptm. This should not be hard to find.
C – Any C with 0.0 3ptm. This should not be hard to find.
Ditching
Assists:
Synopsis – You'll notice that there's really very few point guards
who do not dish the ball. That's fine! Don't draft them high. A point
guard like Jason Terry who gets 5 assists is still getting a lot of assists.
You don't want this. Instead, wait for low value later round guys like
Fisher and Gibson. A huge blow came to this build when Tony Allen was
announced as SG only and not PG, but it's still tenable. You should only
have 3-4 guards on your team in total, and only 1 of them needs to be
PG eligible. All you need from your PG position is 3ptm and steals, and
there's bound to be some scrub on your FA list that fills that role. On
the bright side, now the rest of your team can focus on what they best,
not passing, not turning the ball over, and scoring lots and lots of points.
1st Round Pick – Amare, Marion, Yao
2nd/3rd Round Pick – Lewis, Redd, Jamison, Josh Howard, A. Jefferson,
Okafor
The Rest:
G – Kevin Martin, Gay, Stojakovic, Bell, Crawford, Fisher, Gibson,
T. Allen, N. Robinson, Q. Richardson, Peterson, Webster, J.R. Smith, Redick
SF – Any SF with under 2.5apg. This should not be hard to find.
PF – Any PF with under 2.0apg. This should not be hard to find.
C – Any Center with under 2.0apg. This should not be hard to find.
Ditching
Points:
Synopsis – Players who do not score points have very low comparative
value with players who do, especially in the earlier rounds. This build
serves to take advantage of this. The pitfall to avoid is %s. Since your
team doesn't score, your team has low field goal attempts and low free
throw attempts; this means any single player who has a bad % will hurt
your team disproportionately. Chandler is not an option because of his
free throws. Further, don't be afraid to draft one player who scores a
lot as an early pick (such as Yao Ming or Amare Stoudamire) so long as
they have absurd %s (50%+, 80%+). Their high %s will be disproportionately
valuable to your team. You have no real positional concerns, but instead
you'll have %s concerns later on, where you cannot draft any player with
a single significant poor % due to your low attempts. On the other hand,
these players will be significantly more valuable to you than to your
opponents due to your apathy towards their major weakness: points. Trading
away high middle picks for 8th/9th rounders is a good idea. The hidden
bonus for this unconventional build is a naturally low turnover rate and
the guarantee that no one else will be ditching points and squeezing you
for value!
1st Round Pick – Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul
2nd/3rd Round Pick – Marcus Camby, Rasheed Wallace
Mid Round Picks – David West, Kirk Hinrich, Josh Howard, Andre Miller,
Jason Terry, Tony Parker, Danny Granger, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginoibili,
Andre Kirilenko, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Battier, Brad Miller
Late Round Picks – Any player with under 12ppg. This should not
be hard to find.
Ditching
Steals:
Synopsis – Almost everyone steals. But not everyone. This is a fairly
easy category to ditch, just not very efficient since it's fairly easy
to stay minimally competitive in steals (you only need one 2.0spg player
or two 1.5spg players). You gain the benefit of being able to focus on
guards who do other things well, so you can find lower round guards who
fit your team well.
1st Round Picks – Nowitzki, Nash, Gasol, Yao
2nd/3rd Round Picks – Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson,
Al Jefferson
The Rest – Any player that holds under .6spg for C/PF and under
1.1spg for G/SF. A mass majority of players at all positions will fall
under these categories. This should not be hard to find.
Ditching
Turnovers:
Synopsis – Unless you can find someone to trade your lower picks
away for higher ones, it's best to avoid doing this. If you're dead set
on this however, just draft with abandon. All of your top four rounds
should have players with above 3.0 turnovers. No player on your roster
drafted before the 12th round should have lower than 2.5 turnovers. After
that, still try to keep your low round players above 2.0 turnovers. Taking
a high round C is a good idea since at lower rounds, very few centers
have high turnovers (Pachulia, Blount, and Curry are the exceptions).
Also, this resolves your shot blocking problems, since there are few mid-round
players that block shots and turn the ball over. Note that you will naturally
accumulate a lot of positive stats using this method, so %s should be
of key concern. Since you will have many scorers, low scoring players
like Chandler with one low % will not hurt your team significantly. Of
course, there's only very little comparative advantage to ditching turnovers
since most top players do turn the ball over significantly anyway; you're
generally better off at least making an attempt to stay competitive in
this area, if only as injury insurance.
1st Round Pick – L. James, Bryant, Arenas, Nash, Wade, Yao
2nd/3rd Round Pick – Duncan, Josh Smith, Iguodala, Pierce, Iverson,
McGrady, J. Johnson, D. Howard, C. Anthony, D. Williams, B. Davis
Mid Round Picks – Odom, Randolph, T.J. Ford, A. Miller, J. O'neal,
Ellis, R. Davis, Maggette,
Late Round Picks – Tinsley, Crawford, Nene, Krstic, Wells, R. Jefferson,
Hughes, G. Hill, Pachulia, Curry, T. Allen, Blount
Ditching
Rebounds:
Synopsis – Everyone rebounds, especially centers. This strategy
is incredibly hard to do. Your job is to trade down for good value (many
people would love to move up in drafts) and pick guards with low rpg for
every pick you can't get good value for by trading down. You almost absolutely
must draft Stephen Jackson, so don't hesitate to overdraft him (he could
be PF eligible this season). Nocioni and Diaw are your other options at
PF in the top 150 picks. You have no centers that fit, with the possible
exception of Troy Murphy (if his decline in rebounding continues). Your
team will also have a naturally low-ish fg% that can hardly be avoided.
On the plus side, ft%, steals, asts, and points are almost a lock. The
correlation between rebounds and blocks will further hurt you here, and
if you wish to ditch rebounds without ditching blocks, you will need Kirilenko
and a slew of very scrubby Centers (except maybe Darko and Bynum). This
is very much not recommended for this season.
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ADWCTA is a new column writer for RotoFreak.com. If you'd like to comment
on the article, please chime in on
the boards.
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